Big budget games aren't sustainable. The gaming audience and their purchasing power can't keep up with the increasing development and advertising costs. I think gaming has gotten too big to crash entirely, but we will see developers and publishers crash. Shit, it's already been happening. THQ, Hudson, Eidos, LucasArts, Midway, Pandemic, and some others.
I think that the epic, big budget games will just become smaller in number. Fewer companies will be willing to take so many risks. It's just a shame because the playing field is becoming so slanted. Back in the day, a few ambitious guys could make a game that stood toe to toe with the best out there.
Then again, at the same time we're seeing a huge renaissance of old school RPGs, adventure games, and even some space sims popping up for the PC.
For RPGs, specifically Japanese RPGs, we have already seen a major shift away from the larger consoles. The developers that did try to stay on board with the 360/PS3 have made some clearly inferior work compared to the rest of the industry's progress.
I really wish I knew where JRPGs would fit into all this. It feels like we aren't going to get many mid-budget JRPGs next gen. I can't imagine games like Nier, Infinite Undiscovery, The Last Remnant, etc continue to be created. They were already clearly lacking in some facets, be it budget or design.
There can only be so many Ni no Kuni's out there; only so many Dark Souls.